Jerusalem Post
ByWALLA! HEALTH
Red meat has long been flagged by health authorities, but whereas in the past it was linked to heart disease and stroke – this time a connection to diabetes was found.
A large study published in the journal British Journal of Nutrition found a link between high consumption of red meat – processed and unprocessed – and a higher likelihood of diabetes among adults in the United States. The study also suggests that choosing alternative protein sources may be associated with a metabolic advantage.
The study was based on data from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from the years 2003-2016, which is managed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. After filtering out missing data, information from 34,737 adults aged 18 and older was analyzed.
More than 37 million Americans live with diabetes, and nearly two million new cases are diagnosed each year. An international survey conducted also in Israel in 2024 found that among those aged 20-79, the rate of diabetes in Israel is about 10.1% of the population. In light of the ongoing rise in morbidity, the focus on modifiable risk factors – foremost among them dietary habits – is increasing.
Red meat, and especially processed meat such as sausages and cold cuts, is widely consumed in the Western diet and has previously been linked to an increased risk of heart disease, certain types of cancer, and premature mortality. However, its connection to diabetes was not unequivocal in previous studies.
How was the study conducted?
The researchers examined the association between red meat consumption (total, processed, and unprocessed) and the presence of diabetes.
Food intake was assessed using 24-hour dietary recalls (up to two recalls per participant).
The definition of diabetes included:
Self-report of a physician diagnosis
Fasting blood glucose levels of 126 mg/dL or higher
Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) of 6.5% or higher
The researchers adjusted the analysis for many variables, including age, sex, ethnicity, socio-economic status, body mass index (BMI), smoking, physical activity, alcohol consumption, and overall dietary composition.
What did the study find?
Among the participants (average age: 45.8), about 10.5% were diagnosed with diabetes.
Compared to individuals who consumed the lowest amount of red meat, those who consumed the highest amount showed:
A 49% increase in the likelihood of diabetes with total red meat consumption
A 47% increase with processed meat consumption
A 24% increase with unprocessed red meat consumption
In addition, each additional daily serving of red meat was associated with a 16% increase in the likelihood of diabetes. Both processed and unprocessed meat were associated with an approximately 10% increase in risk for each additional serving.
However, the researchers emphasize: This is a cross-sectional observational study, and therefore causality cannot be inferred.
What happens when meat is replaced?
The researchers also examined statistical models of "dietary substitution" – that is, what might happen if instead of half to one serving of red meat per day, another protein source were chosen. The findings showed that replacing one daily serving of red meat with plant-based protein (nuts, seeds, legumes, and soy products) was associated with a 14% reduction in the likelihood of diabetes.
Replacing it with poultry, dairy products, or whole grains was also associated with an 11%-12% reduction in the likelihood of diabetes.
The strongest association was found with substitution for plant-based protein, but here too, it cannot be determined that this represents a proven risk reduction, but rather a statistical association only.
The researchers suggest several possible biological mechanisms for the association found:
Saturated fat
Heme iron
Sodium and nitrates in processed meat
Inflammatory processes affecting metabolism
However, these mechanisms were not directly examined in the study.
The findings indicate that dietary patterns, and particularly red meat consumption, are associated with the prevalence of diabetes in the adult US population. Replacing red meat with plant-based protein sources or other foods may be associated with a lower likelihood of diabetes, but long-term studies are required to examine whether this also reflects a causal effect. In other words: Diet is a modifiable factor, but the path to understanding its precise impact on diabetes is still ongoing.
