Armenia's dream of a "corridor" from Iran to India

On January 15, Armenia's Minister of Economy Vahan Kerobyan said that the trade route connecting Armenia and India through Iran is planned to be opened by May 2024. The minister explained that he recently met with his Indian counterpart and also with the head of the company that manages the Indian part of Chabahar port. The parties have defined an action plan to be implemented by May.

We are talking about cooperation with Iran and India to ensure unhindered cargo transportation from India to Armenia, then to Georgia, European Union countries and vice versa. In Yerevan, they hope that the opening of this road will dramatically increase trade and freight traffic. How will the launch of Chabahar port affect the geo-economic atmosphere in the region? In general, will the attitude towards the project remain stable in the "Old World", the last stop of this port?

Chabahar is a city located in the southeast of Sistan and Baluchistan province of Iran. Chabahar, Iran's largest port after Bandar Abbas, is the only Iranian port with direct access to the open sea and ocean. The geographical proximity of the port to countries such as Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, as well as being an important transit hub in the international "North-South" transport corridor, enable Chabahar to become one of the important trade centers of the region. India also accepts this advantage. New Delhi is considering the Iranian port as an alternative project to the Gwadar port, which is being developed jointly by its strategic rivals, Pakistan and China. In addition, India has a strong interest in Chabahar port to open a trade route to Central Asia.

It should be noted that the port project signed in 2016 for the purpose of creating a triple corridor in the region is one of the joint ventures of India, Iran and Afghanistan. Although the said agreement is based on the development of Chabahar port, the point is that it should provide India with access to Afghanistan through Iran. Political observers say the Chabahar port allows India to bypass Pakistan on its way to Afghanistan. Therefore, it is said that Pakistan will be one of the countries affected by the Iran-India-Afghanistan trilateral trade agreement.

However, the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan and the strengthening of India's regional rivals in Afghanistan, including China and Pakistan, make New Delhi to develop its strategic relations with Iran. Therefore, it can be said that Chabahar port is an important factor in India's strategic relations with Pakistan and China and in the formation of regional balance. In this context, the "Brookings Institute" in its report "Strategic and Economic Interests of India in Iran" evaluates the development of Chabahar port as the cornerstone of India's multilateral strategy towards Iran.

According to analysts, New Delhi has been working hard to increase its influence in Afghanistan since India became an investor in the Chabahar port development project. The United States exempted the development of the said port from the sanctions imposed on Iran in order to support economic stability in Afghanistan and help the country's development. Therefore, India, as an ally of the United States, was investing in the port of Chabahar, but the transition of Afghanistan to the control of the Taliban movement complicated India's plans. Moreover, it is not clear when stability will be achieved on this route. Therefore, analysts point out that the Middle Corridor is a route to consider for both India and the regional states. It should be noted that the Middle Corridor is considered the most optimal option for the organization of sustainable logistics between the East and the West, and it is considered as an optimal solution that meets the needs of transport diversification for both China and the countries of the European region. In addition, Chabahar port is currently free from Western sanctions, but it is difficult to predict how the situation will change in the future.

Despite all this, the parties show that they are interested in developing the project. On January 15, Iran and India signed a document "On cooperation for the development of Iran's Chabahar port". Based on the document, a working group will be formed with the participation of the parties. The working group will consider increasing the transit and loading capacity of Chabahar port and issues of technical equipment. According to Iranian Minister Mehrdad Bazarpash, the development of Chabahar port will increase the transit possibilities of the "North-South" corridor. Chabahar port plays a major role in the formation of the North-South International Transport Corridor. The cargo will be transported from Mumbai port in India to Chabahar port in Iran, and from here to Russia and European countries via Qazvin-Rasht-Astara (Iran)-Astara (Azerbaijan) railway.

Iran and Azerbaijan act as transit countries in the international project. Armenia also wants to join this transit and receive income from the cargo to be transported from India to Europe. But if we take into account that transporting products through Armenia to Georgia becomes a very difficult issue in the winter months, then Yerevan's desire to buy something only from India may seem realistic. In this sense, Azerbaijan has no problems and our country remains an important junction of the "North-South" corridor. In transit geopolitics, regardless of which direction the winds are blowing, all arrows point to Baku.

Sabuhi Mammadov
XQ