Fitch affirms Azerbaijan at 'BB+'; outlook positive

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Fitch Ratings has affirmed Azerbaijan's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB+' with a Positive Outlook, Report informs citing the agency.

 

"The rating is supported by a very strong external balance sheet, the lowest public debt in the peer group, and financing flexibility from large sovereign wealth fund assets," the agency said.

 

It is emphasized that the public debt indicator is the lowest in the 'BB' category.

 

"The current account surplus halved to 14.8% of GDP in 2023, but remains the highest in the 'BB' category. We expect surpluses to remain robust in 2024-2025 despite lower oil prices (oil and gas revenues account for 90% of total exports). Sovereign foreign-currency assets rose to USD69.8 billion in 2023, 80% of which are held by the Sovereign Wealth Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ)," the forecast says.

 

It is also noted that the average inflation declined to 9% in 2023 supported by a strong manat relative to Azerbaijan's main trading partners and lower international food prices.

 

"We project it will ease further to 4.5% in 2024," the agency notes.

 

According to it, the economic growth will recover to 2.8% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025 with the support of the public investment.

Economy