The South Caucasus region has always been the focus of great powers. After the discovery of rich oil deposits in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan under the control of Tsarist Russia, this interest turned into a major geopolitical conflict.
Today, history is repeating itself, the USA and the European Union are trying to use the geopolitical vacuum created in the region after the collapse of the USSR to form a system in accordance with their national interests. This desire of the West began to manifest itself especially after the end of the Second Karabakh War in favor of Azerbaijan. But against the background of the new realities that have arisen in the region, it seems impossible that the non-regional countries will achieve their wishes.
It is no longer a secret to anyone that Armenia, which came out of the 44-day war shattered, is looking for a new "security umbrella". Yerevan wants to buy more weapons. In this direction, the first "swallow" came to Armenia from France. Paris sent armored vehicles to Yerevan that Ukraine did not need. In addition, France plans to send air defense systems and ammunition to Armenia. So, what intention is hidden behind France's activation in Transcaucasia? Experts believe that Paris is not interested in the "suffering Armenian people", France wants to push Russia out of Armenia and gain a new sphere of influence. Of course, France is not able to solve the problems of Transcaucasia. Paris has neither the appropriate historical tradition nor the political will for this. It's just that France wants to neutralize Russia's influence in the region, and also tries to gain some image points for itself.
Despite this, France has been stubbornly active in other areas as well. Paris tried to put pressure on Azerbaijan on the Karabakh issue. For example, after the local anti-terrorist measures held by Azerbaijan in September, France took the initiative of holding an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. However, the diplomatic attacks of Paris have not yielded any result. France also promised to open a consulate in the city of Gorus under the pretext of defending the territorial integrity of Armenia. Of course, the loud statements and symbolic gestures of the French leadership are widely covered and commented on in the Armenian press. At the same time, local politicians do not hide their willingness to further expand cooperation. However, there are not few Armenians who understand the reality. For example, political scientist Akop Badalyan said that France will not be able to strengthen itself in the South Caucasus. For this, Paris will have to negotiate with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
In an interview with the Armenian press, political scientist Akop Badalyan said that in the last thirty years, Armenia has taken a path that is completely incompatible with the problems it is facing. In this sense, this situation has caused political crises and made it difficult to make political decisions. According to him, it is unlikely that early parliamentary elections will be held in Armenia today. Akop Badalyan thinks that public sentiment is important for holding elections, but there is no public demand for early elections: "Of course, the majority would like a change of power, but this desire does not mean that such steps can be taken. For this, it is necessary to have a clear perspective."
The Armenian political scientist thinks that now Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is trying to attract the West to the region, but the West does not have the opportunity or desire to do so: "Everything is based on words, but there is no concrete step in practice. "Armenia is trying to force the West with statements against the CSTO, and the West is responding with simple statements." A. Badalyan declared that he is sure that even if Russia is not in the South Caucasus, any new actor coming to the region should come to an agreement with Turkey and Azerbaijan: "Only in this case, a new actor can emerge in the field of security. We are talking about France. Therefore, according to our imaginary logic, it cannot be. There is no Russia, so there must be a country with an agreement with Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran.
Sabuhi Mammadov
XQ
