In Armenia, there is no leader to replace the prime minister, no force capable of overthrowing the government
Protests against Nikol Pashinyan became widespread after the Azerbaijani Army carried out local anti-terrorist measures. It is true that before that, various protests and demonstrations were held in Yerevan, and demands for resignation were voiced. There was even brutal behavior of the police against the protestors.
But at this time, international NGOs, which describe themselves as defenders of human rights, were silent. In fact, the silence served to protect the power of the Prime Minister of Armenia, it meant supporting Pashinyan's power with all the possibilities and resources. After all, the loss of Pashinyan's power means the loss of the known powers of the West. We are talking about the loss of global interests and interests on the South Caucasus platform.
He can neither swim nor endure...
We can unequivocally say that if a force is found in Armenia to replace N. Pashinyan, that force will no longer be a representative of the West. The new leader will come from the ranks of pro-Russians. But the probability of that person being a representative of the Karabakh clan is zero. However, there are not a few forces in Armenia that consider Pashinyan acceptable. It is true that Nicole has made big promises to her constituents and is now looking for opportunities to deliver on those promises. When we look at the issue from the current aspect, it turns out that those who want to continue the journey with Pashinyan are those who have no will and are indecisive.
It seems that now there is no leader to replace Pashinyan in Armenia. We do not see a strong internal opposition front against his rule. The prime minister often meets with the opposition forces that are not represented in the parliament, and this factor itself, the discussions he conducts with them, lead to the easing of tensions in the domestic political processes.
It should be noted that when talking about the forces that have the power to influence internal processes in Armenia, the Armenian lobby cannot be forgotten. The mass of the society dissatisfied with the government may increase due to the Armenians from Karabakh. The events of the last three months suggest that this factor has become a trump card against Pashinyan in the hands of the opposition front.
Taking into account all this, the official Yerevan has recently slowed down the political demarche it started in the direction of leaving the CIS, the Eurasian Union, the CSTO, the Customs Union and, in general, completely parting ways with Russia. It should be noted that the Prime Minister of Armenia did not go to the intergovernmental meeting of the Eurasian Union and the CIS in October, as well as missed the Minsk summit of the CSTO in late November. By the way, there is no doubt that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's two-day business trip to Russia serves to neutralize the pressure of Moscow and the growing pro-Russian forces at home. On December 25, the Prime Minister participated in the meeting of the leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union member countries in St. Petersburg, and yesterday he attended the summit of the heads of state and government of the CIS. The summit was held at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Insidious plans remained on paper
Before that, attempts were made to remove Pashinyan from power. The plan to overthrow Pashinyan by the hands of the former generals of the defeated army, who are considered as the "fifth column" scumbags, failed. It was known to everyone that Moscow played the role of the organizer and "inspirer" of the non-stop mass protests in Yerevan last year. At those rallies, the representatives of the "fifth column" shouted "Pashinyan, resign!" These forces, who openly declared that they wanted to overthrow the government, did not hide that they would start a war against Azerbaijan as soon as they achieved their goal.
The anti-Pashinyan coalition also includes the "Karabakh clan", which has been in power in Armenia for 20 years, and the forces concentrated around it, as well as the oligarchs who have failed their businesses in the region. In order to achieve their goals, they drew plans to use the hundred thousand Armenians who voluntarily left Karabakh as pawns.
"No force can topple Pashinyan, because this is not a party's mission, but a national consolidation mission." These words were said by the arrested deputy chairman of the Youth Union of the Republican Party headed by the third president of Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, Armen Ashotyan. This person answered the online questions addressed to him by citizens "from the inside". Social network user Roland Tarmazyan asked him what concrete steps the party would take. According to Ashotyan, the party he represents has closely participated and supported all attempts to overthrow Nikol. At this time, he made an interesting comparison: "Of course, the identity of the solo violinist is important, but it is more important that the whole orchestra does not play "fake".
Probably, after this statement, the investigation will bring charges against the "young political leader" for making calls to change the state structure.
The double fiasco of the "Karabakh clan".
Today, we can talk about the collapse of Armenia as a state. Because the country is about to be shaken by an internal conflict with no end in sight for some time. Besides all this, the revanchists, including the Karabakh clan, have not had a real chance to send Pashinyan to resign.
Seyran Ohanyan, the fugitive general who holds a deputy's mandate in Haylar's pocket, says the "Artsakh" issue has not been resolved yet. This is an example of revanchist rhetoric belonging to the "Karabakh clan" without "dqr" and separatist-junta regime. The goal of the bearers of such a stupid idea is to disrupt the relative political stability in Armenia and raise the masses against Pashinyan. A large part of Hayastan community openly ridicules these "officials" and demands that they be brought to justice. The reality is that today the representatives of the so-called Saparatist regime, who sacrificed their lives in Armenia, are not influential even among their former subjects - Armenians from Karabakh. They are far from being able to influence anything. Adventurous statements about the non-resolution of the "Artsakh" issue are a characteristic feature of dreamy revanchists. Supposedly, in this way they will be able to destabilize the society.
It should be recalled that three months ago, a maximum of five to six thousand people gathered for the protest rally of the entire Armenian opposition, which was also attended by Karabakh Armenians who moved to Yerevan. Despite the cries and appeals of singer Sirusho, the daughter-in-law of the second president of Armenia, Robert Kocharyan, the efforts of the "dirty" businessman and failed diplomat Ruben Vardanyan, who is drinking tea in the remand prison in Baku today, and the cunning plans of Gagik Sarukyan, the head of the Prosperous Armenia Party, known as "stupid Gago", nothing happened. . The united opposition's attempt to "play the last dance" on the "miatsum" myth ended in the expected fiasco. The "public relations victories" of the organizers were limited to a few streets of Yerevan. It seems that the revanchists were thinking about turning all their failed attempts into a "triumph" that day. These are the words of Republican Party spokesman Eduard Sharmazanov three months ago: "If a hundred thousand people take to the streets, the police will join us, and then Nicole will refuse and leave."
But it didn't work. Because the people of Yerevan have a great hatred for Kocharyan, Sargsyan and the "Karabakh clan" as a whole. This means that their coup attempt was a double fiasco. No matter how many political forces try to overthrow N. Pashinyan and lower his public reputation, they have no results. In general, the Armenian people are indifferent to the calls of the radical-revanchist section of the society.
Rasim MUSABYOV,
Member of Parliament, political scientist
Now pro-Russian forces feel disappointed in Armenia. Because the vast majority of the population is of the opinion that Moscow abandoned them. Allegedly, the Kremlin did not "lift a finger" for the protection of Karabakh Armenians. For this reason, pro-Russian forces are not capable of making any coup attempt against Pashinyan. Although the Kocharyan and Sargsyan couple wants to use the Armenians who left Karabakh against the government in "sweeping" tactics, they themselves do not rely on the support of the Kremlin. Also, for this reason, I do not think that the pro-Russian forces will consolidate and organize an attack against Pashinyan in the near future. But if he signs the peace treaty with Azerbaijan towards the summer, I do not rule out that the pressure against him will increase. Time will tell how and in what form this will happen.
As for Nikol Pashinyan's participation in the meeting of the Eurasian Economic Union in St. Petersburg, this is not at all the result of pressure on him. Iravan pragmatically calculates that currently Armenia's economic dependence on Russia is too high. Forty percent of its foreign trade turnover is with Russia. About four billion US dollars are transferred to Armenia from Russia every year. It buys cheap gas from Russia. Electricity, railways, communication systems are controlled by Moscow. That is, breaking economic relations with Russia is tantamount to suicide for Armenia. Unlike CSTO, Yerevan is interested in participating in the Eurasian Economic Union. In particular, this year the chairmanship of the institution is transferred to Armenia. But this visit of Pashinyan does not solve the problems between Russia and Armenia.
Fikret SADIHOV,
Professor of Western Caspian University, political commentator
Dismissing Pashinyan from power is a long-standing desire of the opposition camp. At first glance, it seems that the current situation in Armenia is more favorable for them. We are talking about Armenians who moved from Karabakh. We see plans to skillfully use this contingent against Pashinyan. On the other hand, the cancellation of the last separatist leader Shahramanyan's decree on the release of the so-called "Artsakh" regime is also useful for those forces. These forces, which are undoubtedly controlled from abroad, are trying to use the existing factor against Pashinyan.
For now, Nikol Pashinyan's condition is almost stable. In fact, a lot depends on him. He probably realized that by bringing the relations with Russia to the limit of tension, he is actually digging a well for himself. That is why he agreed to participate in the St. Petersburg summit. Most likely, they made it clear to him that he is not an independent politician and told him that if he wants to stay away from us, worse problems can await him. I do not think that N. Pashinyan will be overthrown in the near future. But the course of the proceedings will depend directly on the decisions made by Pashinyan. Of course, here the issue should be approached from the perspective of the Prime Minister of Armenia maintaining relations with Russia at a normal level. And this can be considered one of the important factors for his future political fate.
Imran Badirkhanli
XQ
