A well-known political commentator called the Armenian government a toy institution controlled by the West

In the last four months, the peace on the conventional border was broken precisely because of Armenia's fault. At the current sensitive stage, when the new movement toward final peace between the two countries has begun, the military provocation of the Armenian army not only raises certain questions, but can it push Baku to make corrections in its position? So, what dividends does Yerevan think to gain from the artificially created military-political tension? Political commentator Orkhan Amashov answers the questions of "XQ" in these and other aspects.

- Mr. Orkhan, after the provocation at the conditional border, some media subjects reported about disagreements in the political establishment of Armenia. Can this event be considered as the reason for the dual approach to the pending peace?

- First of all, let me say that any unpleasant incident on the border, regardless of its scale, means undermining the peace process. The mission of the European Union, which is nominally civilian, but actually intelligence, has no help or benefit for peace. Even, according to some points of view, this mission can provoke Armenia to short, retaliatory actions along the conventional border. This is very dangerous. A little while ago, a representative of the French gendarmerie was there, and we are also aware of the case of the detention of a Czech citizen at the conditional border. This very fact shows that revanchism tendencies remain seriously within the army in Armenia. Perhaps, these tendencies are still evident in regions that Nikol Pashinyan himself could not fully control.

Despite calls for peace from the Prime Minister and statements that a peace agreement could be signed soon, in the lower echelon, for example, if we pay attention to the behavior of Edmon Marukyan, even Ararat Mirzoyan himself, as well as the behavior of some persons who represent Armenia in various international organizations, we will see that There is a sufficient number of Armenian politicians who are carriers of the clear "miatsum" philosophy. The Armenian government should get rid of these thoughtful personnel, change its constitution, and carry out major cleaning work in its foreign policy apparatus. Finally, he should convince Azerbaijan that they have abandoned the "miatsum" ideology. Unfortunately, unless these steps are taken, the problems will continue.

- In other words, there are still obstacles on the way to achieving peace between the parties. In your opinion, what type of peace is Armenia trying to achieve with Azerbaijan?

- Armenia says that it is unaware of the events taking place along the conditional border. There is an impression that Armenia cannot control its conventional border. This is the first aspect of the matter. The other side is that in the last four months, that is, during the period after September 20, both Azerbaijan and Armenia are experiencing the calmest and normal phase of the history of the conflict. I hope that the incident that happened three days ago at the conventional border will not change the nature of that stage. Rather, it will not be systematic. But there are certain illusions in the lower circles about the theses that Pashinyan voiced in a well-known interview with the British publication and which were calculated for the domestic audience, as well as being able to change the course of history.

Their main intention is that the process leading to the peace agreement does not conform to Azerbaijan's wishes. We often say that Armenia is running away from peace, but in fact, Yerevan is running away not from peace, but from the peace agreement that we want. They need such a peace that all issues related to territorial integrity are clarified. But since our border has not been delimited, this issue remains open for now. On the other hand, they are trying to ensure that Russia does not have control over the Zangezur road in the document they will sign with Baku. They also try to involve a third party as a guarantor in the delimitation process.

- Who do they want to see as a third party?

- Of course, they would like to see that civilian mission of the European Union in this status. They may especially wish for France to participate. Although Nikol Pashinyan himself fully understands the reality, scouts from the capitals of European countries are trying to convince him that something should happen that can change the balance in Baku's favor in Azerbaijan-Armenia relations. For example, a mini transaction. Let's say, in May 2021, we strengthened our conditional border. Now they are trying to make Azerbaijan face the facts by conducting a short-term military operation in those areas. Yes, they can provoke Pashinyan to this. This is a clear issue that can disrupt the dynamics of the peace process. There are other factors that disrupt the dynamics of peace. Of course, after we solved the problem related to Karabakh, the main obstacle preventing peace was removed. But there are additional issues waiting to be resolved. For example, issues related to the Armenian constitution...

- Are we talking about the articles in the main law of Armenia that contain territorial claims against Turkey and Azerbaijan?

- Yes, after agreeing on the mutual recognition of territorial integrity in Prague in October 2022, look at the appeals of Armenia's representative at the UN and the letters he sent to the European Court of Human Rights. They answer the questions about the territory in such a way that, supposedly, that territory is the territory of the "Republic of Artsakh". On the one hand, they recognize our territorial integrity, and on the other hand, they talk about the "Republic of Artsakh". This shows that there is no sincerity on the part of Iravan, moreover, they commit such provocations on the conventional border, so the road to peace is longer than it seems to us.

- It is interesting that a few days ago, the segment related to the 44-day war called "Nagorno-Karabakh" was canceled from the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Armenia. Then known provocation at the conventional border monitored by the Euromission. What is official Iravan trying to achieve with this?

- The presence of the European Union mission there does not serve the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The goal is to achieve the strengthening of the EU in Armenia and the gradual weakening of Russia. It is of no use to us. When the two-month mission visited for the first time, they told us: Let's create stability on the border so that you can sign the peace agreement.

We now see what stability the mission has achieved. Pashinyan did not use this properly, after the arrival of the mission, he started talking about international mechanisms related to the security of Karabakh Armenians. Although this topic has been removed from the diary since September 20 of last year. There are two points here. Pashinyan is preparing his country for peace. If you pay attention to his talks in December 2021, you will see that he says: Karabakh belonged to Azerbaijan anyway, we did not accept it, but it should have been so then. That is, don't blame me for this, the fault lies with those before me - Kocharyan, Sargsyan, who deceived the people.

He even once said that in 2016 the "Republic of Artsakh" no longer existed. We could also see that Pashinyan's rhetoric is coming, but his diplomats are speaking in a different rhetoric. In his address to the people on September 20, Nikol Pashinyan stated that we do not think there is a threat to the lives of Armenians in Karabakh. A few days later, Ararat Mirzoyan spoke about "ethnic cleansing" in Karabakh in his speech at the UN. Then it turns out that supposedly Mirzoyan is quite an independent figure compared to Pashinyan. I don't think so. It is a coordinated process.

- You want to say that the statements from different positions in the power of Armenia are part of the scenario controlled by the West, and they are all in collusion...

- Of course, the process is coordinated. We should definitely not assume that Armen Grigoryan or Ararat Mirzoyan are independent figures. Supposedly, they will form some new political camp against Pashinyan.

Although Armenia is a parliamentary republic, it is just the name. Yes, the leader of the party that wins the majority in the parliamentary elections becomes the prime minister of the country. But the political management system in this country is similar to the super presidency. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces is the prime minister. The prime minister also appoints his deputies and ambassadors. That is, the president is a symbolic figure. Sometimes outside observers may have the impression that a parliamentary republic is more liberal. Yes, from the outside, a presidential system may look more progressive than a state. But Pashinyan behaves more like a president than a prime minister. In this regard, everything is under his control. I think that the activities of diplomats are also regulated by Pashinyan. He is a chameleon player. He says one word and instructs others to say a different word. But if we look at Nikol Pashinyan's movement trajectory, we will see that he cannot go beyond the framework defined by Azerbaijan.

- It is a fact that the public opinion survey showed that Pashinyan's rating among the population has dropped significantly. How do you know if this is part of the public opinion manipulation game?

- Pashinyan's rating has really fallen. It's just that the decline has not reached a critical level. This is one side of the matter. On the other hand, the forces outside the political forces under Pashinyan's control are not as popular. The reason for the Prime Minister's victory in the elections three years ago was not because of his high personal popularity, but because his opponents were far behind. That line continues today. Indeed, there is no superior political figure among the forces included in Pashinyan's coalition. I don't think that Kocharyan, Sargsyan, or any of the political figures of the Dashnaktsutyun Party in the opposition camp are loyal to him. The Armenian society does not like the prime minister, but its hatred for others is so great that Nikol Pashinyan manages to stay in power.

He recorded the conversation:
Imran Badirkhanli
XQ