Imran Badirkhanli
imranbedirkhanlı[email protected]
Now time seems to be pulling Armenia from the highway to the country road
It is no secret that Yerevan has high hopes and is even happy for the first meeting of the US-European Union (EU)-Armenia triad to be held in the Belgian capital on April 5. The Armenian authorities do not even want to hide this. After all, why not be happy? The two superpowers of the world will take Hayastan in their arms and turn their heads, as if they will show a way out of the situation, show a common position and make concrete decisions.
It is not so difficult to guess what Nikol Pashinyan's government aims to achieve from this meeting. His first goal is to leave Moscow quickly and without a headache. According to the scenario, the next goal is to appear before Azerbaijan as a strong and supportive party in the peace negotiations. If it succeeds, Iravan hopes to conduct bilateral negotiations with Baku not as a country defeated in the war, but as an "equal opponent" and to sign the peace agreement in this status.
The nature of the further behavior of the Armenian leadership, which still does not completely abandon the participation of a third party in the peace negotiations, will depend on the outcome of the Brussels meeting. Get out of Russia's clutches as soon as possible! This is the strategic result that Pashinyan's team strives to achieve. But, it is not as easy as it seems from the outside. In this regard, we should bring to the attention of official Yerevan a conclusion contained in the latest report of the US Institute of War Studies: "The West cannot replace Russia for Armenia. This is especially related to the geographical position of Armenia...". It is an instructive saving as it is logical.
Yes, Armenia is making a serious mistake by seeking its security guarantee not in the region, but far away. As mentioned in the report, the West, including the United States, cannot give him this guarantee. Wouldn't it be more logical for Hayastan to take a look at its neighbors in the region, at the "Gasgaz House" with the "3+3" format, instead of floating in the sky with the foreign notes that the West blows into its ears? Otherwise, the Pashinyan government, which should follow its benevolent patrons such as the EU and the USA, headed by France, and take into account that radical chauvinism and revanchism will grow stronger in its powerful opposition society, will make the situation a little worse by putting the importance of coming to peace with Azerbaijan under the current conditions and the need to take the steps expected of it into the background. Of course, only for himself. Baku, on the other hand, will have clarified again what are the real goals of those who say "come to Yerevan" and why they want to confuse the region.
The most serious test for the defeated Hayastan, which is now hitting left and right, will be not the political test of its "partners", but the test of time. Time is getting shorter. For three years and six months, the hand of peace and cooperation extended by Azerbaijan and Turkey to Armenia has been hanging in the air. According to elementary logic, if Pashinyan really wants this state to remain in the geopolitical geography of the globalized modern world, then he should shake the hands of his neighbors, not the West or the North. And he should do it as soon as possible. In two days, nothing new will happen in Brussels. "All the new things are the forgotten old ones" - it's time to remind people of the postulate.
As if he had just woken up from sleep, looking for a guarantee of his safety in France behind the Alps, or in the United States on the other side of the ocean, Iravan should give up these unsuccessful plans that are in the past and have been sent to the archive, and should choose the peacemaker's hand extended to him, not the side that smells of gunpowder!
