Hayastan's excuses are endless...

Constitutional change, peace with Azerbaijan, relations with Russia. Currently, these three topics are mainly occupying the political agenda of Armenia. The remarkable thing is that the changes in the constitution and the relations with Russia have an impact on the peace agenda with Azerbaijan. Of course, we are talking about a negative effect. Let's start with the first.

It is known that the leadership of Azerbaijan also emphasized the importance of changing the Armenian constitution. There is a very simple reason for this - that constitution includes territorial claims against neighbors, including Azerbaijan. If Yerevan is interested in peace, it should, first of all, lay hands on its basic law. Consider that change is also a gesture of sincerity.

However, those who do not assess the issue in Armenia are in the political field. They state that Baku's statement is an insult to Armenia's sovereignty. Those who hold such a provocative position also emphasize that Azerbaijan allegedly violated the territorial integrity of Armenia, occupied more than 220 square kilometers of the country, and allegedly continues its aggression by destroying the fundamental documents of the republic. The most important point is that a bunch of deranged people are making noise that the issue put forward by our country is aimed at the complete destruction of Armenia.

Yes, the fundamental basis of the modern Republic of Armenia is built on aggression and the Karabakh adventure. In fact, the same motives were relevant when the country gained its independence in 1918. This means that without a territorial claim, Armenia does not exist as a state. So, a change in the current trajectory is inevitable. That is, Armenia should choose a different path for existence. Of course, there are those who understand this in the country. But, unfortunately, their number is more than those who engage in rhetorical rhetoric, or the screams of the latter are louder against the background of the silence of the former.

The revanchist faction in Armenia claims that the main obstacle on the way to peace was the statements of Azerbaijan and Turkey regarding the non-resolution of the Karabakh issue. The Karabakh issue has already been resolved, but Baku is far from satisfied with this.

Of course, it is the excuse of the Armenian politicians. After the 44-day war of 2020, it was the Armenian government that invented something new and presented it as a peace agenda. The Armenian political establishment is well aware of the political manipulations of the country's leadership. In the present case, there is an unwritten understanding between both poles.

It is clear that Armenia does not need peace. Therefore, the country is far from the intention to accept the reality. Accordingly, all opinions voiced by Azerbaijan are presented in an irritating manner to the Armenian society. Also, the issue of constitutional amendment. Although it was brought up by the Armenian government for the first time, the topic is emphasized in such a way as if Baku is dictating a change in the basic law to Yerevan. As a result, the effects of the psychotic environment become stronger and reality takes second place. At first glance, it seems that the Armenian opposition created this situation. But that is not the case at all. Because from time to time, we have seen that the country's government turns the adventurous views voiced by the opposition into a part of its policy.

As we said, one of the main topics of Armenia's political environment is relations with Russia. Of course, if the first aspect is the agenda of peace with Azerbaijan, the second aspect is the closeness of Armenia to the West. Recently, a segment has been added to the proximity with the West. We are talking about the NATO segment. Armenia's decision to activate political and practical cooperation with the Alliance is encouraging, as stated by Xavier Kolomina, NATO's special representative for the South Caucasus, who is on a visit to Yerevan. The Armenian authorities try to explain this course in terms of strengthening the country's security.

Of course, Armenia needs specific security guarantees. However, the country's political experts say that in the current situation, no one in NATO, the United States and the European Union is ready to give such a guarantee. In the current direction, only verbal promises are noticeable. Of course, in this sense, it is possible to consider France as an exception. However, it is also known that the international situation of Paris itself is not in order.

On the other hand, the Iranian factor should also be emphasized here. In the context of Armenia's desire for cooperation with NATO, it is doubtful how important this factor will be in terms of ensuring Yerevan's security. Let's take into account that these days Iran has brought to attention the inadmissibility of the presence of the West in the northern borders of Iran with the language of Kemal Kharrazi, adviser to the Supreme Religious Leader, who visited Armenia. This means that any infrastructure of the West, first of all, NATO is a "red line" for Iran.

Let's come directly to Russia. For now, Moscow is reacting to Yerevan's behavior only at the level of rhetoric. Because the rapprochement of the latter with NATO in the West does not seem to be a reality yet. So, the Kremlin is cautious. There is one more thing that confirms his caution.

Let's remember that Russia stated that Armenia's ratification of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court was inadmissible. However, from February 1 of this year, Yerevan became a full member of the BCM. That is, the Rome Statute officially entered into force. Moscow was patient in return. Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the Russian President, said that it is hoped that the adoption of the Rome Statute will not affect Moscow-Iravan bilateral relations.

Therefore, if there are no actions by Armenia that are not directly directed against itself, Russia can limit itself to statements. Moscow is aware that the use of punitive mechanisms against Yerevan will cause a negative reaction. In other words, the harshness will not give Armenia the opportunity to rethink and evaluate its actions and policies, on the contrary, the feeling of the correctness of the steps taken in the country will be strengthened. However, this does not mean that the Kremlin will control Yerevan economically, energy, etc. will not try to squeeze with tools.

Yes, Russia hopes that the Armenian train has not run away from it. One hope is that Yerevan will start rotating the chairmanship of the Eurasian Economic Union, in which Russia plays a dominant role. This chairmanship makes us forget the gamesmanship that Armenia made during its chairmanship of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in 2022.

In the end, let us say that the Armenian authorities are refusing peace with Azerbaijan due to the above mentioned. In the current situation, it is somewhat difficult to predict what his future activity will be.

A. RUSTAMOV
XQ