The Pashinyan government should not ignore the call of "Stratfor".

After the 44-day Patriotic War waged by Azerbaijan in 2020 and local anti-terrorist measures, the opinion that the Armenian leadership should accept the new realities in the region is getting stronger. Reputable think tanks of the world also admit this from time to time. "Stratfor" Analytical Center, operating in the USA, announced its position in this direction for the last time.

In the report published by the Center on the forecasts for 2024, it was stated that Armenia will have to accept Baku's demands in the issues of transit and border delimitation. According to "Stratfor" analysts, Yerevan will continue its efforts to sign a peace agreement with Baku, but differences of opinion regarding the terms of regional transit corridors will hinder negotiations further: "It can be assumed that there is progress towards signing a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But Armenia will try to use its expanding political relations with the West and its military support against Baku. However, it should be taken into account that Yerevan's means of influence are few. We can say that the Armenian officials will accept the demands put forward by the official Baku regarding the passage of transit roads through the south of the country and the delimitation of the borders.

"Stratfor" also said that bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and Russia, as well as trade relations, will rise to a new level: "East-West transit in the South Caucasus will continue mainly passing through the territory of Georgia. "Azerbaijan will contribute to the development of the North-South corridor connecting Russia with Iran."

As we mentioned, "Stratfor" came to such a conclusion due to the consecutive victories achieved by our country in the Patriotic War and in the post-war period. If, after the end of the war, Nikol Pashinyan claimed that the "Nagorno-Karabakh conflict" had not been resolved at the press conference after the first meeting between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia held in Moscow on January 11, 2021 with the mediation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, then the 2022 European Political Union signed a document recognizing the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Azerbaijan at the 1st summit held in Prague on October 6. Pashinyan confirmed this position later in the meetings held in Brussels and Chisinau. Finally, at a press conference held on May 22, 2023, Nicole declared for the first time that she recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, which is 86,600 square kilometers, and that includes Karabakh.

Important events took place before that statement was issued. In May 2021 - after the snow melted, Azerbaijani border guards took possession of the borders of our country around Karagöl, and on November 16 of the same year, an incident accompanied by losses on both sides was recorded. On September 12-14, 2022, the largest military conflict after the Patriotic War took place. The Armenian army suffered heavy losses during the military operations, sometimes called the "Two-Day War". On April 23, our territorial integrity was ensured with the establishment of the "Lachin" border checkpoint. In other words, the Prime Minister of Armenia said in May that "Karabakh is Azerbaijan!" it did not happen by choice. As we mentioned in the introduction of our article, this was the result of the realities created by Azerbaijan.

In our opinion, at this point, it is appropriate to quote the views of President Ilham Aliyev in his address to the people on the occasion of World Azerbaijani Solidarity Day and New Year on December 31: "When the Second Karabakh War ends in 2020, when our flag is raised in Shusha and other liberated territories, we will all be well. we knew we had our work cut out for us. Azerbaijan had to fully restore its state sovereignty and did so. For three years, we wanted to resolve it peacefully.

We believed that the Armenian leadership would correctly analyze the results of the Second Karabakh War and draw its own conclusions. Unfortunately, this did not happen. For three years, Armenia not only did not fulfill its obligations, but, on the contrary, prepared and carried out new military provocations against us. The 15,000-strong Armenian army illegally settled on our land was not removed from Karabakh. On the contrary, new weapons, ammunition, military equipment, mines were brought to Karabakh, and mine terror was continued against us. Of course, we could not come to terms with this situation..."

Yes, the new realities created by Azerbaijan are now recognized by reputable research centers. In fact, with this, a subliminal message is sent to the leadership of Armenia to show a constructive approach to the main issues that are currently pending between the two countries. Although significant progress has been made on the text of the peace agreement, several issues remain to be resolved. However, there is no significant progress in the issue of opening communications and border delimitation, which are not directly related to the signing of the peace agreement. However, as we mentioned, these processes do not depend on each other. Armenia made a commitment to open communications with the tripartite statement dated November 10, 2020, and that commitment must be fulfilled.

As Hikmat Hajiyev, Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan - Head of the Department of Foreign Policy Affairs of the Presidential Administration, noted in an interview with the German newspaper "Berliner Zeitung" a few days ago, the term "corridor" should not scare Armenia, because it is widely used in the context of transport routes: "This transport connection connects Armenia It will not deprive Iran of its border. This route will not divide Armenia into two parts. "Unfortunately, we see a wide slander campaign against our country, especially in some Western media."

The fairness of our country's position on the issue of opening communications and delimitation gives reason to believe that the Armenian leadership will accept it in 2024. The forecast of "Stratfor" is the first harbinger of this.

Elkhan SHAHINOGLU,
Head of "Atlas" Research Center

There is a high probability that a peace agreement will be signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia this year. Proposals are discussed, there is progress. However, the signing of the peace agreement will not mean the solution of all issues between the two countries. Two issues are likely to be left out of the peace agreement. These are the opening of communication lines and the delimitation of borders. Negotiations in those areas will continue for some time.

Negotiations on the definition of borders can generally take many years. We should not worry about this. After all, the strategic heights on the border are under our control.

Armenia also delayed the issue of opening communication lines for three years. Despite certain tensions in relations with Iran, we reached an agreement with Tehran. In other words, the opening of communication lines is actually more necessary for Armenia. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the country, Ararat Mirzoyan, announced that Armenia should have the right to use Azerbaijan's communication facilities. We are not against it. There is nothing unusual here. If the official Yerevan allows the citizens of Azerbaijan to freely travel through the Zangezur Corridor to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and Turkey without being checked, Armenia can also use the railways of our country to get access to Russia and even to Central Asia through the Baku International Sea Trade Port located in the settlement of Alat. . However, as I mentioned, the only condition is the recognition of the right of our citizens to travel to Nakhchivan without going through the inspection. I think that negotiations in this direction will continue in the future, and as mentioned in the Stratfor report, it is possible for Armenia to accept Azerbaijan's condition. Our condition is that the citizens of Azerbaijan have the opportunity to travel freely through the Zangezur corridor. Cargo from Central Asia and China can be checked by Armenia within its jurisdiction. We are not against it.

Aydın MIRZAZADE,
Member of Parliament, political scientist

Azerbaijan's proposals regarding the peace agreement are in accordance with international law and are fair. International organizations and foreign countries also see this. Therefore, the position of our country is gaining more supporters every day. In principle, Armenia also realizes that Azerbaijan's position is fair. However, Iravan is trying as much as possible to ensure that provisions that violate Azerbaijan's sovereign rights are reflected in the peace agreement. It seems obvious. It is no coincidence that they periodically put forward conditions that delay the conclusion of a peace agreement. Then they themselves refuse those conditions.

One of the important issues for our country is the establishment of a land connection with Nakhchivan. Azerbaijan rightly demands, based on the international experience, that cargoes with local destination going to Nakhchivan should be exempted from any inspection and customs duty. Because Azerbaijan transports cargo and passengers to its own territory, not to a foreign country. If Azerbaijan will send cargo to Armenia and other countries from the territory of Nakhchivan, it may be subject to customs inspection.

Armenia forgets that not only Azerbaijan will use the Zangezur corridor. Russia, Central Asian states, China, Turkey, countries that want to go to Europe and the Arab world will also use this road widely. The cargo going from Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic will be a very small part of the cargo passing through the Zangezur corridor. Armenia should sooner or later accept this rightful demand of Azerbaijan. International analytical centers recognize that the Zangezur corridor is of great importance not only for the region, but also for the world. The acceptance and support of our country's position once again shows that Azerbaijan is taking fair and just steps to realize its sovereign rights.

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