The winners negotiate the deal so that everyone wins.

Arnold Goldstein

Political and diplomatic revolution of Azerbaijan

The last provision of the II article was as follows: Azerbaijan's leadership has begun to achieve mutual support of regional realities and interregional realities in order to implement the "3+3" formula. The mechanism of its implementation is mainly related to the implementation of specific projects (energy, information, communication, logistics, defense, security, etc.). With this, official Baku has actualized the issue of the security of the new environment of cooperation in a wide geographical and geo-political space. It also directly connected it with the national security of the participating states.

Starting this process in Azerbaijan's "3+3" example includes the synthesis of two trends: the first is to include states from other regions in the process, in addition to the participants of the formula, to increase the elements of the security system and in this sense to diversify it by taking into account different interests. The second is to integrate the process as a whole by directing that diversification towards ensuring security and cooperation in the interregional environment.

Here, the main political-theoretical and practical task is to realize sustainable security and cooperation in the context of the "3+3"+other regions formula in the synthesis of these two trends. At the same time, it is to achieve the "geopolitical non-dissolution" of the "3+3", which we conventionally call the "nuclear formula" in the interregional security environment in an expanded form. Or, on the contrary, it is the adaptation of the "3+3" formula to the security logic, spirit and goals of other regions.

Of course, it is a complex and risky process. Because the influence of big states from various directions on the wide interregional environment is greater. However, official Baku has found a very effective way out of such a complicated situation, and the "3+3" formula is also a rescue formula in this sense.

"auto factor" and "3+3" model of XXI century geopolitics

A large number of philosophical, geopolitical, political-theoretical studies have clarified the existence of an interesting feature. We call it the "auto factor" of 21st century geopolitics. The geopolitical "autofactor" is related to the "logic of internal self-creation" at the current stage, which is formed by the peculiarities of the dynamics of interactions between chaos and order, certainty and uncertainty, and security and threats. It is possible to get rid of the current complicated situation by means of a constructive choice based on that logic. That is, against the background of the general dynamics of the 21st century geopolitics, such a security system should be created so that there are not only organizers who follow stable political norms, but also dynamically renewing "self-creation" mechanisms. Self-creation ("auto-creation") of each geopolitical system (regional and global scale) has the characteristic of not only adaptive, but also creative response to rapidly changing situations. Specifically, the "3+3" formula has two levels of "autofactor". First, the states that are the direct organizers of this formula - Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, Turkey, Russia, Iran, are not only on the basis of stable political norms, but also can actively react to any uncertainty that may arise politically, economically, culturally, energetically, geopolitically. , logistics, etc. they must have a synthesis of factors. The relations between Russia, Turkey and Iran should form the "defense belt" of this process within the "3+3".

Secondly, the "auto-creating" mechanisms of "3+3" will be more effective if they have the power to influence a wider space. For this, geographical, political, economic, cultural, energetic, information and geopolitical boundaries of "3+3" must be crossed. In the practical aspect, this aspect of the matter is of great importance.

Baku creates a new security value

Azerbaijan is activating the "autofactor" mechanisms of the "3+3" formula by harmonizing the activities of regional and global organizations. For this, official Baku implements its activities within the framework of CIS, TDT, Non-Aligned Movement, Organization of Islamic Cooperation in a coordinated manner. At this time, tactically and strategically, it chose the European Union as its closest partner. The potential and practical philosophy of "One Road, One Belt" mega-project is used to materialize the value of security and cooperation.

This process is carried out by the official Baku Turkish diplomacy in the context of activities in the organizations they are a member of and the implementation policy of the global megaproject. At this time, that process is realized against the background of creating a network of activities that allows to get a concrete result. However, it can be concluded that the network of "3+3"+other regions is, in fact, implemented in a closely intertwined relationship between national security and regional security, as well as interregional security conditions. In a more concrete way, we can say that Baku's new security factor is related to taking the activities of regional organizations into interaction with megaprojects and forming a dynamic environment of security and cooperation.

Azerbaijan implements this goal through the activation of strategic projects in three specific directions. They are, firstly, energy projects, secondly, information-communication projects, and thirdly, transport-logistics projects. For each of those projects, the "network of communicative roads" created by various routes plays the role of auto factor. This creates an interesting tiered system. A large number of countries are "connected" to each other by a network of projects that can provide specific mutual benefits, and the realization of these "connections" takes place within the framework of a well-defined "network of communicative roads". They are also called "corridors". For example, "Middle Corridor", "Zangezur Corridor", "Southern Gas Corridor", "Baku-Ceyhan" transportation route, TAP, TANAP, Baku-Tbilisi-Kars "Iron Silk Road", "East-West Corridor", "North -South Corridor" and finally "Green Energy" (renewable energy) Corridor. These are, in fact, new factors that together form a dynamic network in terms of essence, content and purpose.

Another interesting and important aspect of Baku's activity is that all communicative potentials and their current forms are directed towards a single strategic direction - integration with the West. In this sense, Azerbaijan gets a chance to project the regional geopolitical "auto factor" on the global scale against the background of the "3+3" formula. It is for this reason that we believe that all provocations against this formula in the West will fail strategically. There is no alternative to its realization!

But why is it real that this new geopolitical and security value, which Azerbaijan has consistently created, plays the role of dynamics, flexibility, self-security and cooperation factor?

Basic factors creating the modern world system

The essence of the matter is related to this point. Official Baku actualizes the factors that are necessary for the modern world as a whole, which every state has a serious need for at all times. These factors are three: energy, information and communication technologies. At the same time, it is transport-logistics programs that connect those basic factors with each other in political, geopolitical, and security aspects. These factors are important to overcome any uncertainty, risk, threat and danger, chaos that may occur in the system. Because modern humanity cannot exist without them! On the other hand, Azerbaijan puts forward such projects in specific aspects that are of strategic importance. This means that all participants in the process are interested in the realization of those projects for a long time.

At the same time, there is an important point in the policy implemented by Azerbaijan. It is the fact that official Baku is the initiator of programs corresponding to the characteristics of each new stage. As an example, we can say that Azerbaijan is active in "green energy" or renewable energy projects in the energy sphere. These projects are directly related to providing Europe with a new type of energy. This includes solar, electricity, hydrogen, wind and other renewable energy sources. The routes for transporting these types of energy to Europe have already been determined. Azerbaijan is a direct participant in the implementation of the Greece-Bulgaria (opening: October 2022) and Serbia-Bulgaria (opening: December 2023) gas interconnectors. In addition, Baku has created a new cooperation format in the field of energy with 5 Eastern European countries. Within that format, electricity from Azerbaijan is delivered to Romania by passing through Georgia and the bottom of the Black Sea.

Also, as for the West, they understand very well that if the entire system of projects is aimed at the development of Europe's security and development as a whole, then it is of vital importance, the main line of existence. If Europe is not completely crazy and unconscious yet, if it has elementary thinking and analytical ability, it will support this process of Azerbaijan on a large scale! If this does not happen, then there is no point in living on a planet with "old crazy and unconscious"! It's time to "bury" him!

Conclusion: an alternative perspective of the "3+3" formula

This formula is an irreplaceable format of regional security and cooperation due to its essence and strategic features of its function. Azerbaijan has already prepared the basic principles and concrete mechanisms for its realization. They form a system or complex network. Those mechanisms, which are closely related to each other, work in practice. Thanks to those mechanisms, intriguing situations in the region in the post-war phase do not lead to military clashes. Let's take into account that the destructive activities in the region are mainly in the West.

Specifically, France is creating new conflict situations in the South Caucasus on a deeper and wider scale. Also, Paris is trying to build this destructive activity on factors that can have long-term effects. It is strange that PACE as a whole supports the non-constructive activity of France in this matter and even motivates it with provocative decisions.

On the other hand, such behavior of the official Paris and those who "follow" it is absolutely not in the interests of Europe itself. Because they should know that Azerbaijan plays a strategic role in ensuring Europe's energy security. This is openly acknowledged by the leaders of the European Union.

It turns out that Azerbaijan's struggle against destructive forces in the region will not last forever under the current scenario. It is necessary to react collectively to that process within the framework of the "3+3" format. Each member of this formula should become active in that direction. Other geopolitical actors with an interest in the region must definitely respond to the calls of Azerbaijan-Turkey unity. Everyone is responsible for the security of the region!

Fuzuli GURBANOV,
XQ's analyst