American journalist, security analyst, lawyer Irina Tsukerman said that French President Emmanuel Macron chose the wrong strategy against Azerbaijan to pursue his own interests.
She told Report that so far, there is no evidence that either country is seeking to publicly downgrade diplomatic relations, but the intelligence-related developments are a sign of deteriorating security cooperation and of France being perceived increasingly as an unfriendly state: "France retaliated by expelling Azerbaijani diplomats, but regardless of steps, this incident is a public embarrassment for France and a caution against further pro-Armenian activity. It appears that Azerbaijan has protested the espionage activities by these two employees, most likely intelligence officers operating under diplomatic cover, against Azerbaijan's interests."
According to her, the uncovering of these two individuals is a strategic communication signal: "While some level of intelligence gathering activities is expected even among relatively friendly states, this episode comes at a time of heightened tensions between France and Azerbaijan, with Macron being seen as siding with Armenia politically, undermining regional integration, and taking an anti-Baku line in European institutions to the detriment of national interests. The uncovering of these two individuals is a strategic communication signal; it is not a cause of but a sign of deteriorating relations, with Baku drawing a red line over the time of aggressive political snooping and meddling that will not be tolerated. "
She noted that up until this point, France was able to play both sides—continue its historic pro-Armenian line while enjoying the benefits of relations with Baku, which include many forms of cooperation as part of multilateral arrangements within the EU: "There was no reason for France to change its position, due to the strong impact of its large Armenian diaspora and the potential for power play in the South Caucasus. Moreover, some of the tensions are less due to any specific issue with Baku than to the broader context of France's tensions with Türkiye. There, Macron chose the wrong strategy to pursue his interests by treating Baku as a mere extension of Ankara's policies and taking out these issues on Azerbaijan. A smarter position would be to cultivate positive ties with Azerbaijan rather than push it closer to Türkiye, which is exactly what is happening as a result of a perceived political attack by the French."
Tsukerman stressed that the next steps depend on whether France learns the right lesson from this incident and puts efforts into improving relations with Baku, or whether instead it will double down on its position and will only take care not to get caught in the future: "Recalibrating the relationship would be desirable by all sides; arguably France could have a bigger and more positive role to play in the region if it is not seen as single-mindedly biased against the leading South Caucasus power, which is playing a growing role on the international stage and could be a partner for cooperation in many areas."
